Almost all fantasy drafts are done at this point and there have 3 games played. There will still be fantasy drafts continuing through the early weeks of the season but this article will likely fall on deaf ears. So why write it? Ultimately I want to make it public so that I can celebrate when I am right and criticize myself when I am wrong. This is more of a test and a fun little time capsule.
All rankings are for a default scoring Yahoo points league.
Macklin Celebrini
Celebrini is the face of the future and that future is rapidly approaching, so why fade this guy? This mostly comes down to a high risk at the price. The surrounding picks are proven NHL superstars, meaning that in order to actually hit his proper ADP value, he needs to basically hit his ceiling. There is a 50/50 chance that this guy actually hits superstardom for a second year in a row which is the lowest chance of occurring of any player in the top 5/6 players. I like him at 5th or 6th, but ahead of Kucherov and Draisaitl is a bit too risky for my taste.
Wyatt Johnston
I like Wyatt Johnston, his price is just outlandish. At ADP 20, that assumes that he will take another step forward compared to his breakout performance last year. While it is definitely possible that he does hit this ceiling, it isn’t even good value because that is where he is being priced. It is like spending $10 on a lottery where you can win up to $10, just not good business. Grab Eichel or Boldy instead who are far more proven players in this range.
Darren Raddysh
Darren Raddysh is one of the most interesting players in all of fantasy hockey. He was 3rd in defenseman goals last season and looked like a top level defenseman in the NHL, but things have really changed. Most importantly, he was traded to the Maple Leafs in the offseason and will no longer be on one of the most stacked power plays I have ever seen in Tampa and will have to adjust to a new system. Additionally it is not very common that a player will break out at 30 and then…stay good. He will probably be a decent defenseman for your team, but going before players like Seider and Chychrun is criminal to me.
Gavin McKenna
I think people are blinded by how elite the past few 1st overall picks have been, in particular Matthew Schaefer who was a league winning pick last year. The thing is, grabbing a high upside rookie in the 7th round is risky to say the least. Around this point in time there are still players like Beckett Sennecke, Zach Hyman and Noah Dobson available who have a higher floor and ceiling. All projections are saying that 55-60 points is a good season for him, that is not a great score for fantasy.
Sydney Crosby
Syd the Kid is one of the greatest players to ever touch a hockey stick and has aged like fine wine. However, there are some red flags here. Age will eventually play a factor and the Penguins, in my opinion, will be terrible this year. The age factor is accepted and that will decrease his ADP to what it currently his, but the Penguins being bad is not as widely accepted. They are a young, rebuilding team who through some massive overperformances managed to squeeze into the playoffs last year, I just don’t see this happening again. On paper they sold off for all of last year and this offseason and accumulated another year on their star players. They came into last year with a chip on their shoulder and did great, I don’t see it happening again and this will hurt how Crosby does in fantasy.
Alex Ovechkin
Ovi will skate to one place and one place only. He will score, but the concern is team role. He is currently on the second line but could realistically drop as time goes on. This is an old man who is just limited in what he can do and that will hold him back on a wagon of a team. There is upside here, but there are a lot of upside bets that I think are more likely to hit.
Pavel Dorofeyev
This is the pick that I am the least confident in, however, I do stand by it. Last year Pavel Dorofeyev benefited massively from playing next to Jack Eichel and Mitch Marner who are some of the best setup players in the entire league. Now he is next to JT Miller and Oliver Bjorkstrand, good players but not remotely on the same level. This Rangers team has managed to underperform year in and year out and while they did lots of stuff this offseason, I don’t see why this year should be really any different. His best case scenario he is a good role-player for your team, like he was last year, and worst case he is off your team in a month.
Jakob Markstrom
Mediocre goalie, great team. Is that enough…maybe? We have seen a steady decline of his play over the past few years as shown in a slowly dropping SV%. He still has some years of good hockey ahead of him, but there is a real concern here that the best is behind him. Additionally, while the Panthers are very good at winning the cup, they have never really been the regular season juggernaut that makes me okay with completely overlooking a goalies individual flaws. He is a fine pick in deep leagues, but there are several goalies I prefer that are going later.
Cole Hutson
I feel like such a loser telling you to not take these fun risks, but this one is really important. I love the Capitals, they have been one of the teams that I have talked about the most on the positive lists that I have made. The issue is that Cole Hutson doesn’t have a super clear path PP1 for the Capitals. He did get some time last year, but beating Chychrun is not something that can be safely assumed here. This guy could be a good number 4 defenseman on a team where you don’t need him to pan out to be successful, but he will often be drafted as a number 2 or 3 defenseman at his ADP which is just bad practice.
Scott Wedgewood
Scott Wedgewood should not be drafted at all. There is no amount that this guy could fall that makes me like the pick. What made Wedgewood good last year? A perfect storm. For one he did play well, having a career year for himself. But he also was playing behind the Presidents Trophy winning Avalanche AND his backup was hurt for a while and decided to have his worst year upon his return. There is a real chance this guy is a 1B goalie this year and that is not a draftable player outside of very deep leagues. There are great goalies that are falling really far in drafts, there are goalies that are going in the last few rounds of drafts that I would prefer regardless of draft position over Wedgewood.
